The Trinamool Congress has deployed its top leaders to oversee the bypolls in south Kolkata’s Bhabanipur from where Mamata Banerjee is expected to gain legitimacy as chief minister.

Banerjee had lost to close aide-turned-rival Suvendu Adhikari of the BJP in Nandigram, but took over as chief minister. She needs to get elected to the Assembly within six months (by November 4) if she is to retain her chair.

Trinamool’s trade union leader and power minister Sovandeb Chattopadhyay contested and won from Bhabanipur, the seat that Mamata Banerjee had won in 2016 as well as the bypolls in 2011, in the recent Assembly polls.

Chattopadhyay had defeated BJP’s Rudranil Ghosh by over 28,000 votes in the 2021 Assembly polls. But he resigned soon after his victory to facilitate his party chief’s entry to the Assembly.

Given Chattopadhyay’s convincing win from Bhabanipur just a few months ago (he bagged 57.7 per cent of the votes cast), and the Trinamool’s thumping statewide victory, the bypolls should be smooth sailing for the Trinamool chief.

But the deployment of top Trinamool leaders—transport minister Firhad Hakim, panchayat & rural development minister Subrata Mukherjee, industry minister Partha Chatterjee, senior leader Debashish Kumar (who is the MLA from the neighbouring Rashbehari constituency) and Mamata Banerjee’s own brother Kartick Bandopadhyay—to micromanage the poll campaign reveals signs of nervousness within the Trinamool leadership.

One reason is that the Trinamool's vote share in Bhabanipur has not been steady. In the 2011 Assembly elections, Trinamool's Subrata Bakshi bagged more than 87.000 votes (64.77 per cent of the votes cast) and defeated his CPI(M) rival by nearly 50,000 votes.

Bakshi resigned soon after the elections (which brought the Trinamool to power in the state) to make way for Mamata Banerjee's entry into the Assembly.

Mamata Banerjee was a Lok Sabha MP at that time and hadn't contested the Assembly polls. In the bypolls that followed, Mamata Banerjee polled more than 73,000 votes (14,000 votes less than Bakshi) but her vote share increased to 77.46 per cent.

However, in the next Assembly polls held in 2016, though Banerjee polled more votes (85,520), her vote share declined to 47.67 per cent.

In this year's Assembly polls, Sovandeb Chattopadhyay polled 73,505 votes (57.7 per cent vote share).

Due to voter fatigue, fewer people cast their votes in byelections. Especially if the byelections are held soon after the main polls.

Bhabanipur is also an urban seat where voter turnout is lower than rural areas. In the 2021 polls, just over 61 per cent of the voters queued up to exercise their franchise.

The Trinamool wants to buck this trend of fewer voters exercising their franchise and get at least 70 per cent of Bhabanipur's electorate to cast their votes.

That's because the party wants to maximize its supremo's margin of victory. It will be quite embarrassing for Mamata Banerjee of she were to get much lesser votes than Sovandeb Chattopadhyay.

A moderate victory with a lesser margin than Chattopadhyay or a close victory with the BJP trailing close behind will energize the saffron party and dent Mamata Banerjee’s image. It will expose her to taunts from the BJP.

Another reason for the Trinamool’s worry is that the BJP has been consistently improving its electroal performance in Bhabanipur.

In 2011, BJP candidate Ram Chandra Jaiswal polled a mere 5078 votes (3.74 per cent vote share). The saffron party improved its performance in the bypolls a few months later.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, BJP's Chandra Kumar Bose polled 26,299 votes (19.13 per cent vote share). In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, six of the eight wards (of Kolkata Municipal Corporation) that make for Bhabanipur Assembly segment gave a lead to the BJP.

In the Assembly polls held a few months ago, BJP's Rudranil Ghosh polled 44,786 votes (35.16 per cent vote share). Two wards—numbers 70 and 74—that are dominated by non-Bengali Hindus (mainly Marwaris and Gujaratis) are the Trinamool's weak spots in Bhabanipur.

Sovandeb Chattopadhyay had trailed by over 2,100 votes from Ward 70 and more than 700 votes from Ward 74. The Trinamool wants to ensure wins for Mamata Banerjee from both these wards.

The thinking in the Trinamool is that if Banerjee can post wins from these two wards dominated by Hindi-speaking Hindus, it will strengthen her claim to a leadership role at the national level. Banerjee feels it is crucial to emerge as a leader of not only Bengalis (Hindus and Muslims), but non-Bengalis too.

"Our aim is to ensure that she gets a major share of the votes in both these wards. That'll prove to the rest of the country that Mamata Banerjee has the confidence and support of non-Bengalis, especially the Hindi-speaking people, of Bengal," said Firhad Hakim.

Hakim will oversee the party's campaign in Wards 74, 77 and 82 (Hakim resides in Ward 82 which is considered his pocket borough).

Ward 77 is a Trinamool stronghold since it is dominated by Muslims. This Ward gave Sovandeb Chattopadhyay a lead of 21,000 votes in the last (2021) Assembly polls.

Comprising Muslim-dominated ghettos of Khidderpore, Ekbalpore and Mominpur, Ward 77 accounted for more than 75 per cent of Sovandeb Chattopadhyay's overall lead of over 28,000 votes from Bhabanipur.

Ward 82 is also dominated by Muslims and is, hence, a Trinamool citadel.

Trinamool leader Debashish Kumar, legislator from the neighbouring Rashbehari Assembly constituency, has been put in charge of the poll campaign in Ward 70.

"He (Kumar) has a 'strongman' image and is known to patronise party goons. He is not beyond using foul means. We apprehend that he will try to intimidate the non-Bengali voters of Ward 70 and will try to rig the polls there," said a BJP leader.

Minister Partha Chatterjee has been put in charge of wards 71 and 72 while Subrata Mukherjee will oversee the campaign in Ward 63. Mamata Banerjee’s brother Kartick Bandopadhyay will be in charge of the poll campaign in Ward 73, where the Trinamool chief resides.

The Trinamool is worried about the negative fallout of the post-poll violence against the BJP by Trinamool goons. The ghastly and continuing attacks on BJP workers and supporters has, the Trinamool apprehends, affected its image and standing among the urban middle classes.

Except for the two Muslim dominated wards (77ans 82), the remaining six wards are inhabited by middle-class Hindus. Mamata Banerjee’s sops and doles (which bagged her support of Bengal's poor and lower middle class populace) do not find much resonance in these areas.

Except for the residents of Bhabanipur's (non-Muslim) slums, the many welfare measures rolled out by Mamata Banerjee may not yield her electoral dividends from the rest of Bhabanipur's Hindu voters.

To overcome all these and ensure that Mamata Banerjee wins handsomely from all wards of Bhabanipur, the Trinamool leadership is pulling out all stops.

Nothing is being left to chance to ensure Banerjee's win from all the wards. The party leadership doesn't have any doubts about her imminent win. It is just that she has to win from all the wards in order to demonstrate that she enjoys the support of all sections of the people.

If Mamata Banerjee's poll performance mirrors that of Sovandeb Chattopadhyay—his victory can be attributed mainly to the support of Muslims—it will be a big embarrassment for her.

Such a victory will strengthen the perception that she, and her party, wins elections in Bengal mainly because of the support of Muslims who form nearly 30 per cent of the state's population. Banerjee, who is dreaming of playing a role at the national level, can ill-afford such a perception to gain more currency.

Sovandeb Chattopadhyay

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